Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — Technical state
As of 2026-09-17 — re-computed nightly across the coverage universe. Closelook diary readings, not advice.
Closed back above its 50-day line 2 sessions ago, with the 200-day still rising beneath it.
The moving-average stack
- vs 20-day+2.1%
- vs 50-day+3.1%
- vs 200-day+13.8%
- 52-week band10.2% off the high · +93.7% off the low
- Streak2 consecutive up sessions
- 50-day crossprice crossed up through the 50-day 2 sessions ago
- Stochastic%K 35.1 · %D 31.5 · up cross
Analyst consensus (context)
Target 578 (+34.4% vs the baked price) · Buy · 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell. Third-party consensus, shown for context — not a Closelook view.
Continue: the TSM chart & overview · quality & forensics · the earnings record · the signal board
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-17
Quick answers
What is the current Closelook signal on TSM?
Reclaimed its 50-day — Closed back above its 50-day line 2 sessions ago, with the 200-day still rising beneath it. As of 2026-09-17; the signal board re-computes across the coverage universe nightly. A research diary reading, not advice.
Is TSM above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages?
As of 2026-09-17, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades +3.1% above its 50-day and +13.8% above its 200-day average, with the 20-day +2.1% away.
How far is TSM from its 52-week high?
10.2% below the 52-week high and 93.7% above the 52-week low, as of 2026-09-17.
What is the analyst consensus on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?
Consensus target 578 (+34.4% vs the baked price), rating Buy, with 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell recommendations — third-party consensus data, shown for context, not a Closelook view.
Mentioned on Closelook
Where TSM appears in the diary — 23 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.
Go deeper
Long reads
- Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint Chain
17× Trail P/E 15× Fwd P/E +47% Rev Growth TSMC TSM · $374 Constructive Constraint: 92% leading-edge, 75% advanced packaging 28× trailing (vs.
- Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?
- AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves Out
- This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this week
- TSMC — The Toll at the Only Bridge
How we hold it TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 ; the print record carries its reaction history, and the stock page the live structure.
- AI Bull Market — The 2026 Verification Phase
January 15 TSMC (TSM) — The Hub Utilization rates for 3nm/2nm chips.
- Nvidia Ecosystem — Wave 1: The ‘Stacking’ Peak
TSMC TSM 0.98 Correlation Tier I Classification Linear · 2026–2030 Role Monopoly Manufacturer Why Every Rubin (3nm) and Feynman (2nm) chip is a TSMC wafer.
101 and glossary
- NVIDIA Investor's Timeline: Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and Beyond
The investment question is not "is NVIDIA a good company?" — it's "is NVIDIA's stock a good risk-adjusted investment at this price?" Key Companies NVDA NVIDIA Architecture owner — Hopper/Blackwell/Rubin TSM TSMC Fabrication + CoWoS…
- The Packaging Bottleneck: Advanced Packaging as the AI Chokepoint
Key Companies TSM TSMC CoWoS monopoly — packaging capacity owner BESI BE Semiconductor Hybrid bonding equipment leader ASX ASE Technology Largest OSAT provider IBDN Ibiden Advanced packaging substrates
Dailies
- Yen — the Bank of Japan hikes and the dollar holds 157: the carry trade pays, the lines held, chips +3.4% over $505
- Day after the hike — yields fall and the lines are retaken: 10-year 4.95%, chips +3% over $505, S&P ETF above $757.83
- Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69
- Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their lines
- AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%
- Brent closes above $100 for the first time since July and the 10-year hits 4.86%: Wall Street falls a third day while Cloudflare +10%, Datadog +7% and Meta +7% catch the money the chip leaders gave back
- The trade flips at midday: chips fade, software bounces — Meta +6%, Cloudflare +9%, Datadog +6% while oil holds $101 and the 10-year hits 4.85%
- The AI Order Book, Read From Taiwan
Related in the Closelook universe
- 000660.KS SK Hynix Inc
- 005930.KS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
- 042700.KS Hanmi Semicon
- 0522.HK ASM Pacific Technology Ltd
- 2308.TW Delta Electronics Inc
- 2802.T Ajinomoto
- 285A.T Kioxia
- 3037.TW Unimicron Technology Corp
- 3436.T Sumco
- 4004.T Resonac
- 4062.T Ibiden
- 4063.T Shin-Etsu Chemical
- 5201.T AGC Inc.
- 5801.T Furukawa Electric
- 6146.T DISCO Corp
- 6361.T Ebara
- 6367.T Daikin
- 6525.T Kokusai Electric
- 6723.T Renesas Electronics
- 6856.T Horiba