Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 35% losing upside participation, 39% gaining downside fragility

vs Nasdaq-100 42% losing upside participation, 26% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-03 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →

Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 52 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →

The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.73

Downside β1.95

Asymmetry-0.22

Particip.0.89

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.80	1.70	1.73	1.70
down β	1.34	1.96	1.95	1.93

β-z +1.92instab 43 partic 59fragil 95 conv A -1.25 · accelerating-up

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / QQQ fragile

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.79

Downside β2.23

Asymmetry-0.45

Particip.0.80

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.23	1.82	1.79	1.92
down β	2.02	2.29	2.23	2.13

β-z +1.95instab 47 partic 80fragil 98 conv A -2.23 · flat

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / SPY decoupling

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.61

Downside β2.42

Asymmetry+0.19

Particip.1.08

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	5.77	3.50	2.61	2.64
down β	2.36	2.25	2.42	2.36

β-z +2.35instab 81 partic 99fragil 89 conv A +0.52 · accelerating-up

downside-beta expansion

IWM / SPY distribution

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.04

Downside β1.08

Asymmetry-0.05

Particip.0.96

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.02	0.77	1.04	1.26
down β	0.30	0.93	1.08	1.12

β-z -2.36instab 59 partic 28fragil 32 conv A -0.52 · flat

negative beta asymmetrybeta-adjusted underperformanceupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

RSP / SPY distribution

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.60

Downside β0.81

Asymmetry-0.21

Particip.0.74

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	-0.21	0.28	0.60	0.69
down β	0.33	0.74	0.81	0.76

β-z -2.84instab 65 partic 2fragil 53 conv A -2.48 · accelerating-down

upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetrybeta-adjusted underperformanceupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

HYG / SPY distribution

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.24

Downside β0.21

Asymmetry+0.04

Particip.1.18

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.13	0.20	0.24	0.28
down β	0.17	0.18	0.21	0.18

β-z -0.59instab 15 partic 17fragil 47 conv A -0.60 · flat

upside-beta collapsebeta-adjusted underperformance

ARKK / QQQ decoupling

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.50

Downside β1.26

Asymmetry+0.24

Particip.1.19

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.89	1.47	1.50	1.39
down β	1.70	1.21	1.26	1.45

β-z -2.27instab 51 partic 60fragil 3 conv A +1.74 · improving-but-stalling

downside-beta expansion (sharp)

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

lake 2366 names 35% losing upside participation, 39% gaining downside fragility rubin 123 names 13% losing upside participation, 66% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 25% losing upside participation, 43% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 23% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility aw25 38 names 58% losing upside participation, 16% gaining downside fragility agentic 32 names 56% losing upside participation, 19% gaining downside fragility etfs 14 names 50% losing upside participation, 36% gaining downside fragility

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2738 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.