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Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 75 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-03

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 5 by market implication
Raw alerts 26 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
65 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 3/4 confirm · 11 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 Cyclical Breadth rising mainly because XLU fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Credit Breadth rising mainly because LQD fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Semiconductor Leadership falling on SMH weakness — SMH dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality100 High-Beta Breadth falling on SPHB weakness — SPHB dropping faster than SPLV, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality87 Micro-Cap Breadth falling on IWC weakness — IWC dropping faster than IWM, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta81 XSD/SPY: decoupling — downside-beta expansion
  • Beta71 IGV/XLK: decoupling — upside-beta collapse, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta56 SPXT/SPY: decoupling — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Ratio-Quality53 AI Participation falling on AIQ weakness — AIQ dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta51 ARKK/QQQ: decoupling — downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence42 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+7.3% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
2
Leadership exhaustion bearish
60 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence88 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
  • Divergence55 QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
  • Divergence51 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
3
Hidden fragility bearish
53 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 5 alerts
  • Divergence63 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
  • Beta47 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta43 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta42 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence41 SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.
4
Risk-off / credit non-confirmation bearish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence40 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+7.2% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
5
Distribution risk bearish
45 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 6 alerts
  • Beta65 RSP/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta59 IWM/SPY: distribution — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta59 QNXT/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta57 MDY/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta45 QQQE/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta15 HYG/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.