Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4

Dynamic Divergence Scanner

The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.

Global Divergence Risk 40 mild
Regime Leadership exhaustion SPY +1.7% · QQQ -1.8% 21d

Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-03

Active divergences 7 of 26 tracked
Bearish 7 index up, structure not confirming
Bullish 0 index weak, structure improving
New-high non-confirm 9 index high, breadth not

By family

Breadth 42 watch 1/7 active
Concentration 0 normal 0/3 active
Risk appetite 40 watch 1/4 active
Tech internal 53 diverging 2/3 active
Beta 52 diverging 2/5 active
Momentum 88 critical 1/4 active

Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters

S&P price-momentum divergence — bearish critical · 88

SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.

  • 21d trend efficiency 12/100 · 63d 12
  • SPY +1.7% / 21d
  • Severity 88/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
Small-cap upside-beta failure — bearish moderate · 63

SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.

  • Upside-β participation 28/100
  • Sharp up-β drop 0.26
  • SPY +1.7% / 21d
  • Severity 63/100 (moderate) · Active · confirmed by 1 module
Semiconductor divergence — bearish moderate · 55

QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.

  • QQQ +4% vs SMH/XLK -2.8% over 63d
  • Gap +7% · z 1.01 · 63d
  • 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
AI divergence — bearish moderate · 51

XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.

  • XLK +10.1% vs AIQ/XLK -3.2% over 63d
  • Gap +13.8% · z 0.22 · 63d
  • 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
S&P ex-tech divergence — bearish watch · 42

SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+7.3% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.

  • SPY +5.4% vs SPXT/SPY -1.7% over 63d
  • Gap +7.3% · z -0.02 · 63d
  • 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
  • SPY at a 63d high without SPXT/SPY confirming
Credit beta failure — bearish watch · 41

SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.

  • Upside-β participation 17/100
  • Sharp up-β drop 0.12
  • SPY +1.7% / 21d
  • Severity 41/100 (watch) · Emerging
Consumer risk divergence — bearish watch · 40

SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+7.2% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.

  • SPY +5.4% vs XLY/XLP -1.7% over 63d
  • Gap +7.2% · z 0.32 · 63d
  • 0d active · Resolving
  • SPY at a 63d high without XLY/XLP confirming

Every relationship — scanned

DivergenceDirSeverityGapzDaysStateConfirm
S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum ▼ bear
88
0 Strong
Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY ▼ bear
63
0 Active
Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK ▼ bear
55
+7% 1.01 0 Worsening
AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK ▼ bear
51
+13.8% 0.22 0 Emerging
S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY ▼ bear
42
+7.3% -0.02 0 Emerging · NH
Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY ▼ bear
41
0 Emerging
Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP ▼ bear
40
+7.2% 0.32 0 Resolving · NH
S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY · none
0
+2.4% 0.14 No divergence · NH
S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY · none
0
+4.4% 0.63 No divergence · NH
Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ · none
0
-2.2% -0.71 No divergence
Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP · none
0
-2.3% -0.7 No divergence
Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY · none
0
+4% 0.83 No divergence · NH
Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD · none
0
-0.2% -0.47 No divergence · NH
High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV · none
0
+4.4% 1.08 No divergence · NH
Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ · none
0
No divergence
Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth · none
0
No divergence
Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY · none
0
+3.4% 0.39 No divergence · NH
S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP · none
0
+2.4% 0.14 No divergence · NH
Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE · none
0
-2.2% -0.71 No divergence
Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT · none
0
-2.3% -0.7 No divergence
Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU · none
0
-1% -0.47 No divergence
Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY · none
0
No divergence
Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK · none
0
No divergence
Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK · none
0
-6.6% -1.33 No divergence
Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum · none
0
No divergence
Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum · none
0
No divergence

How to read it

For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.