Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-31
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 1/100 · 63d 10
- SPY +0.2% / 21d
- Severity 94/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-11.9% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -5.5% vs IGV/XLK +7.3% over 21d
- Gap -11.9% · z -1.9 · 21d
- 12d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-6.9% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -5.1% vs QQQE/QQQ +1.9% over 21d
- Gap -6.9% · z -1.47 · 21d
- 5d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-8.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -5.1% vs QNXT/QTOP +4% over 21d
- Gap -8.8% · z -1.62 · 21d
- 5d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT is improving (-8.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -5.1% vs QTOP/QNXT -3.8% over 21d
- Gap -8.8% · z -1.62 · 21d
- 5d active · Worsening
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-6.9% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -5.1% vs QQQ/QQQE -1.9% over 21d
- Gap -6.9% · z -1.47 · 21d
- 5d active · Worsening
3 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 65/100 (Strong divergence)
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
- Upside-β participation 28/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.29
- SPY +0.2% / 21d
- Severity 63/100 (moderate) · Active · confirmed by 1 module
3 of 3 tech internal relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 60/100 (Diverging)
QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+6.4% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
- QQQ +3.1% vs SMH/XLK -3.1% over 63d
- Gap +6.4% · z 0.96 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 94 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▲ bull | 79 | -11.9% | -1.9 | 12 | Persistent | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▲ bull | 76 | -6.9% | -1.47 | 5 | Worsening | 2× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▲ bull | 74 | -8.8% | -1.62 | 5 | Worsening | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▲ bull | 68 | -8.8% | -1.62 | 5 | Worsening | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▲ bull | 67 | -6.9% | -1.47 | 5 | Worsening | — |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 63 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 53 | +6.4% | 0.96 | 0 | Worsening | 2× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 51 | +15% | 0.3 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 47 | +7.7% | 0.4 | 0 | Resolving | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 42 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 39 | +5.6% | -0.24 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | · none | 0 | -0.4% | -0.43 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | +2.2% | 0.15 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | +3.1% | 0.62 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -1.7% | -0.94 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +10.7% | 2.35 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | · none | 0 | +1.9% | 0.07 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | · none | 0 | -0.4% | -0.43 | — | No divergence | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +1.2% | 0.07 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.