Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-03
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 12/100 · 63d 12
- SPY +1.7% / 21d
- Severity 88/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
- Upside-β participation 28/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.26
- SPY +1.7% / 21d
- Severity 63/100 (moderate) · Active · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
- QQQ +4% vs SMH/XLK -2.8% over 63d
- Gap +7% · z 1.01 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
- XLK +10.1% vs AIQ/XLK -3.2% over 63d
- Gap +13.8% · z 0.22 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+7.3% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +5.4% vs SPXT/SPY -1.7% over 63d
- Gap +7.3% · z -0.02 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
- SPY at a 63d high without SPXT/SPY confirming
SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.
- Upside-β participation 17/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.12
- SPY +1.7% / 21d
- Severity 41/100 (watch) · Emerging
SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+7.2% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
- SPY +5.4% vs XLY/XLP -1.7% over 63d
- Gap +7.2% · z 0.32 · 63d
- 0d active · Resolving
- SPY at a 63d high without XLY/XLP confirming
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 88 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 63 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 55 | +7% | 1.01 | 0 | Worsening | 2× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 51 | +13.8% | 0.22 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 42 | +7.3% | -0.02 | 0 | Emerging · NH | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 41 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 40 | +7.2% | 0.32 | 0 | Resolving · NH | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | · none | 0 | +2.4% | 0.14 | — | No divergence · NH | 2× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | +4.4% | 0.63 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | -2.2% | -0.71 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.7 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | +4% | 0.83 | — | No divergence · NH | 2× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -0.2% | -0.47 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +4.4% | 1.08 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | · none | 0 | +3.4% | 0.39 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | · none | 0 | +2.4% | 0.14 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | · none | 0 | -2.2% | -0.71 | — | No divergence | — |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.7 | — | No divergence | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | -1% | -0.47 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | · none | 0 | -6.6% | -1.33 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.