NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Technical state

Long reads

• NVIDIA 2030Dossier · $49 · 24 Mar 2026The market still prices NVIDIA as a chipmaker.
• Industrial & Physical AI: Global Dependencies 2026–2030Dossier · $29 · 6 Mar 2026On the physical AI platform layer, NVIDIA's Omniverse has become the de facto operating system for industrial digital twins — Siemens, Dassault Systèmes, Rockwell, Schaeffler, PepsiCo, and BMW all build on its libraries.
• Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint ChainDossier · $29 · 3 Mar 2026The market is paying a massive premium for AI chip design (Nvidia, AMD) while underpricing the physical supply chain that makes those chips real.
• Agentic Infrastructure Software: The Orchestration LayerDossier · $39 · 24 Feb 2026The release of NVIDIA's BlueField-4 DPU serves as final confirmation that the data center is being re-architected for agents.
• Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?Dossier · $39 · 12 Feb 2026SK Hynix sole primary Nvidia HBM supplier.
• AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves OutReport · 14 Sept 2026The capital stock that the extreme scenario needs — 56% above its no-AI path by 2030, 14% in the substantial case — is being ordered now, and the ordering is itself a demand shock the model does not carry: Alphabet’s…
• Google and RSI — The Loop Nobody Has ClosedReport · 13 Sept 2026
• Magnificent Seven — The Seven at the ShelfWeekly Signal · 30 Aug 2026Nvidia guided to a demand book it cannot fully supply, the market spent the week selling beats across the software tape, and the indices went nowhere: the Nasdaq 100 fund +0.42% on the week at 716.43.

101 and glossary

• ABR — Agent Beneficiary Ratio: Scoring AI Disruption Impact101Key Companies NVDA NVIDIA Natural Position — infrastructure provider CRM Salesforce Cannibalize or Die — Agentforce pivot SNOW Snowflake Natural Position — data infrastructure for agents ZEN Zendesk Terminal — agents replace tier-1 support
• AI Infrastructure Outlook 2026: Layers, Risks, and Positioning101NVIDIA Blackwell is ramping, but the stock prices in perfection.
• Inference Economics: How the Training-to-Inference Shift Changes Everything101The companies that win the training phase (NVIDIA) may not be the same ones that dominate inference.
• NVIDIA Investor's Timeline: Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and Beyond101NVIDIA releases new GPU architectures on roughly annual cadence: Hopper (2022), Blackwell (2024-2025), Rubin (2026), and a next-generation architecture (2027+).
• Sovereign AI: The National Compute Arms Race and Its Investment Map101The investment implications span from NVIDIA (selling DGX Cloud to governments globally) to Nebius (Yandex spin-off building European sovereign cloud) to Dell and HPE (on-premises AI infrastructure for nations with data residency…
• The 6-Layer Model: How Closelook Maps the AI Supply Chain101Compute (Layer 4) is where NVIDIA dominates but custom ASICs are emerging.
• The Greeks: Reading the Options Dashboard101The same nominal trade — “sell a put on NVDA” — can have completely different risk profiles depending on strike, expiry, and IV environment.

Dailies

• Yen — the Bank of Japan hikes and the dollar holds 157: the carry trade pays, the lines held, chips +3.4% over $505Morning 10 · 18 Sept 2026Inside chips the sort paused rather than closed: AMD +6.4%, Arm +8.6%, Micron +5.5%, Intel +7.7%, TSMC +3.0%, Nvidia +2.5% on the design side; Applied Materials +0.5%, Lam flat, KLA +1.0% on the equipment side.
• Day after the hike — yields fall and the lines are retaken: 10-year 4.95%, chips +3% over $505, S&P ETF above $757.83Midday 10 · 17 Sept 2026Equities are trading the same reading: the S&P 500 ETF $762.12, +1.1%, back above Thursday's $757.83 after two closes under it; the Nasdaq-100 fund $716.33, +1.6%, above $708.69; the semiconductor ETF $518.02, +3.2%, above $505 for the…
• Rates — the Fed hikes and the 10-year closes above 5%: the belly sold, the relief unwound, chips back under $505Morning 10 · 17 Sept 2026Chips, reclaimed and lost: semiconductor ETF +0.6% to $502.06 — $508.60 at midday, under $505 at the bell; design bought, AMD +1.6% to $512.50, Marvell +3.6%, TSMC +1.2%, Nvidia +0.8% to $213.90; equipment sold a third day, Applied…
• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF is $508.60, up 2.0% and back above the $505 line it lost on Monday — AMD +4.2% to $525.62, Marvell +3.3%, Arm +2.8%, Nvidia +1.9% to $216.19, and the equipment names green (KLA +1.5%, Lam +0.8%) — while the memory…
• Rates — Fed day at a 5% 10-year: the hike is priced, the cycle is not; Yardeni cuts the S&P target to 7,900Morning 10 · 16 Sept 2026The AI sort paused and softened at the close: the semiconductor ETF +1.0% to $502.07, still under $505, with AMD +2.8%, Marvell +2.4%, Arm +1.7%, Nvidia +1.1% and the equipment names — Lam, Applied Materials, KLA — recovering from −1% to…
• AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in TokyoMorning 10 · 15 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF lost 5.6% to $497.40, through the $505 line we have written about since August and below Thursday’s $517.43; Nvidia −3.4%, AMD −4.4%, Micron −5.3%, SanDisk −5.0%.
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026Inside chips the split we flagged yesterday as the one that leans toward a volume question is still there: the equipment names are sold again — Lam Research −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9% — and Broadcom is −1.4%, TSMC’s US line…
• AI trade — the labs ask for a slowdown: Kospi −3.3%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106Morning 10 · 14 Sept 2026The sort on Friday: chips bought back in the order they were sold — semiconductor ETF +1.9% to $527.07, Marvell +4.0%, Intel +2.6%, AMD +2.5%, Astera +2.4%, Nvidia flat — while memory and storage stayed sold, SanDisk −3.5%, Western…