Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) — Technical state

Long reads

• Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint ChainDossier · $29 · 3 Mar 2026The market is paying a massive premium for AI chip design (Nvidia, AMD) while underpricing the physical supply chain that makes those chips real.
• Agentic Infrastructure Software: The Orchestration LayerDossier · $39 · 24 Feb 2026
• Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?Dossier · $39 · 12 Feb 2026Nvidia/AMD/Broadcom = AI chip architecture.
• This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this weekChart Pick · 11 Sept 2026TSMC is the factory behind Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Broadcom and MediaTek: 73% of the pure-foundry market, more than nine-tenths of the leading edge, a 2-nanometre node in volume that no one else can sell at scale, and advanced packaging…
• Two and a half months of lower highs, then a second low that held above the first — and on Friday the oscillator turned.Chart Pick · 4 Sept 2026All ten of the fund’s largest holdings are constituents of the Rubin Build-Out 100, our index of companies monetising the physical scarcity of AI compute: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and Qualcomm in our S2 accelerator cohort, Marvell and Astera…
• Situational Awareness — Crushed While CorrectReport · 2 Aug 2026The fund evidently distinguished between first-wave names it considered finished (Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, the SMH complex — puts without meaningful offsetting calls) and constraint-chain names caught in first-wave wrappers…
• Memory Chips — Memory Is the New Compute · Closelook Heresy VIIIHeresy · 25 Jun 2026SK hynix’s SAM is narrower but still very large: premium HBM4E/HBM5 and custom HBM for NVIDIA, hyperscaler ASICs, AMD, and next-gen platforms — the highest-value layer, not low-end memory.
• US Equities — Don’t Buy U.S. Stocks · Closelook HeresyHeresy · 8 May 2026Intel — once the most valuable semiconductor company in the world — was overtaken by Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, and Broadcom inside a five-year window, then dropped below $100 billion in market cap while Nvidia crossed $3 trillion.

101 and glossary

• AI Barbell Strategy: Long Infrastructure, Short Disrupted Incumbents101TSMC fabricates chips for NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon.
• ChipletGlossaryAMD pioneered the approach commercially, and Intel and increasingly NVIDIA have adopted it for high-end products.
• Cloudflare as Agentic Toll Booth: The Infrastructure Tax on Every Agent101The Relative Strength Signal While NVIDIA, AMD, and semiconductor names corrected 15-25% in the Q1 2026 rotation, Cloudflare held firm and outperformed the Nasdaq.
• CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate)GlossaryTSMC has been aggressively expanding CoWoS capacity, but demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom continues to outstrip supply.
• Foundry Economics: Why TSMC Captures the Scarcity Premium101It manufactures the vast majority of advanced-node chips for NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, and the entire AI ecosystem.
• FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array)GlossaryAMD (via Xilinx) and Intel (via Altera) are the principal suppliers.
• ROCmGlossaryAMD's open-source GPU compute platform; the principal alternative to CUDA, but lagging in ecosystem maturity.
• Seasonal WindowGlossaryWhy it matters for the AI trade In September 2026 the fund Situational Awareness was reported to have bought calls on AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, SanDisk and a memory ETF in the first days of the month — the thesis Closelook…

Dailies

• Carry Trade — Why Higher US Rates May Be the Bull Market’s InsuranceDaily Pulse · 18 Sept 2026And every equity line we carry was retaken and held into the close, led by the half of the AI trade that had been sold hardest on the discount rate: the chip ETF +3.4% to $519.10, above $505 and above last Thursday’s $517.43; AMD +6.4%…
• Yen — the Bank of Japan hikes and the dollar holds 157: the carry trade pays, the lines held, chips +3.4% over $505Morning 10 · 18 Sept 2026Inside chips the sort paused rather than closed: AMD +6.4%, Arm +8.6%, Micron +5.5%, Intel +7.7%, TSMC +3.0%, Nvidia +2.5% on the design side; Applied Materials +0.5%, Lam flat, KLA +1.0% on the equipment side.
• Day after the hike — yields fall and the lines are retaken: 10-year 4.95%, chips +3% over $505, S&P ETF above $757.83Midday 10 · 17 Sept 2026Equities are trading the same reading: the S&P 500 ETF $762.12, +1.1%, back above Thursday's $757.83 after two closes under it; the Nasdaq-100 fund $716.33, +1.6%, above $708.69; the semiconductor ETF $518.02, +3.2%, above $505 for the…
• Rates — the Fed hikes and the 10-year closes above 5%: the belly sold, the relief unwound, chips back under $505Morning 10 · 17 Sept 2026Chips, reclaimed and lost: semiconductor ETF +0.6% to $502.06 — $508.60 at midday, under $505 at the bell; design bought, AMD +1.6% to $512.50, Marvell +3.6%, TSMC +1.2%, Nvidia +0.8% to $213.90; equipment sold a third day, Applied…
• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF is $508.60, up 2.0% and back above the $505 line it lost on Monday — AMD +4.2% to $525.62, Marvell +3.3%, Arm +2.8%, Nvidia +1.9% to $216.19, and the equipment names green (KLA +1.5%, Lam +0.8%) — while the memory…
• Rates — Fed day at a 5% 10-year: the hike is priced, the cycle is not; Yardeni cuts the S&P target to 7,900Morning 10 · 16 Sept 2026The AI sort paused and softened at the close: the semiconductor ETF +1.0% to $502.07, still under $505, with AMD +2.8%, Marvell +2.4%, Arm +1.7%, Nvidia +1.1% and the equipment names — Lam, Applied Materials, KLA — recovering from −1% to…
• AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in TokyoMorning 10 · 15 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF lost 5.6% to $497.40, through the $505 line we have written about since August and below Thursday’s $517.43; Nvidia −3.4%, AMD −4.4%, Micron −5.3%, SanDisk −5.0%.
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026Inside chips the equipment names are still being sold — Lam −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%, Broadcom −1.4% — while AMD +2.0%, Arm +2.7% and Marvell +2.0% bounce.