Sovereign Pressure · daily · G7 government yields · as of Sep 4, 2026
What the developed sovereign-debt complex is demanding
Seven government bond markets, one read: the G7 ten-year and thirty-year yields aggregated equal-weighted, the slope between them, and a z-scored composite that goes high when sovereign bonds sell off broadly — especially at the long end. The debt side of the capital-competition frame the Morning 10 has been tracking.
Mechanical read
Neutral — no broad pressure
Pressure Index 0.43 (21 sessions ago: -0.08) · components z10 0.85 · z30 0.61 · z-slope -0.85 · front-end-led (policy), not term-premium-led
G7 10-year (EW)
4.03%
debt-weighted 4.32% · 21d +18bp
G7 30-year (EW)
4.64%
debt-weighted 4.93% · 21d +11bp
10s30s slope
61bp
2s10s 76bp
Pressure Index
0.43
z-composite · high = broad sell-off
Sovereign Pressure Index — z-scored composite · dashed = zero
G7 equal-weighted yields — 30-year (red) over 10-year (blue)
The seven markets
| Market | 2Y | 10Y | 30Y | 10Y 1d | 10Y 21d | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.37% | 4.79% | 5.25% | +2bp | +11bp | 2026-09-04 |
| Japan | 1.83% | 2.91% | 3.97% | -6bp | +14bp | 2026-09-04 |
| Germany | 2.95% | 3.35% | 3.81% | -1bp | +19bp | 2026-09-04 |
| France | 3.14% | 4.21% | — | +0bp | +29bp | 2026-09-04 |
| United Kingdom | 4.42% | 5.06% | 5.78% | +0bp | +12bp | 2026-09-04 |
| Italy | 3.13% | 4.14% | 4.91% | -3bp | +23bp | 2026-09-04 |
| Canada | 3.09% | 3.78% | 4.16% | -2bp | +16bp | 2026-09-04 |
How to read it
A yield alone can mislead across different inflation regimes, so the board reads three things together: the level of the G7 ten-year (absolute borrowing-cost pressure), the long end via the thirty-year and the 10s30s slope (whether pressure is term-premium- and fiscal-led rather than policy-led), and the composite that standardises the 21-session changes of all three. When the slope's z-score leads the pack, the long end is repricing on its own — the signature of supply and term premium, not of central-bank moves.
Aggregation follows the house rule: a market whose series does not print that day is dropped and the average renormalised — never imputed. France's thirty-year series is not carried by the vendor and simply does not enter the 30-year leg; the coverage block in the dataset names every gap.
Sources: daily government benchmark-yield series per market, refreshed nightly. Debt weights are approximate G7 marketable-debt shares, refreshed quarterly; the equal-weighted line is the headline so the approximation never carries the read. A data surface, not advice — an investment diary. Related: credit stress · the US curve · Treasury market ETF.
FAQ · from the current data
Sovereign Pressure — data Q&A
What does the G7 Sovereign Pressure board track?
One aggregated read on developed-market government bonds: the equal-weighted average of G7 ten-year yields (US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Canada), the same for thirty-year yields where the series serve, the 10s30s slope between them, and a z-scored composite — the Sovereign Pressure Index — built from 21-session changes in those three legs. It refreshes nightly from daily government-yield series.
Where does sovereign pressure stand right now?
As of the Sep 4, 2026 data, the G7 equal-weighted 10-year yield is 4.03% (debt-weighted 4.32%), the 30-year 4.64%, and the 10s30s slope 61bp. The Sovereign Pressure Index reads 0.43 — neutral — no broad pressure, front-end-led (policy), not term-premium-led. The board refreshes nightly.
How is the Sovereign Pressure Index computed?
Three legs: the 21-session change in the G7 equal-weighted 10-year yield, in the 30-year yield, and in the 10s30s slope. Each is standardised as a z-score against its own trailing 252 observations, then combined 50% / 30% / 20%. A high reading means sovereign bonds are selling off broadly and long-end-led; a deeply negative reading means a broad bond bid. Aggregates drop missing legs and renormalise — nothing is imputed.
Why equal-weighted rather than debt-weighted?
Both are published. Debt-weighted reflects where the actual bonds are, but the US and Japan dominate it; equal-weighted lets stress in France, Italy, the UK or Canada move the read. The equal-weighted line is the headline precisely so the debt-share approximations (refreshed quarterly) never carry the reading alone.
Is this investment advice?
No. Closelook publishes an investment research diary, not investment advice. The board describes what daily government-yield series show. Past performance may not be an indication of future performance.